Long-Term Scenario Considering the Convergence of COVID-19 From Modeling
I found a great modeling analysis article.
For the extermination process of this virus, it’s important to look at scientific analyses. If we don’t, we will be stuck inside forever (until the vaccine has been developed), which will only increase social unrest.
While securing the number of beds for the elderly and critically ill-with this balance, and the amount of people staying at home for a short period of time, can bring reduction up to 80% (medical collapse now) or limit to 20-30% long-term, may be the initial goal to increase the number of beds while moving the economy. There are many people with the virus who do not show symptoms, and I’m convinced it’s important isolate from them.
Everyone, please read this carefully and stay calm
“Long-Term COVID-19 Strategy Models to Consider” by Mangoose cat
What should we do long term? There are many scenarios to consider.
Scenario 1: Repeat measures for people to go outside according to the limited capacity of medical resources.
Scenario 2: After reducing the number of infected people with outdoor restrictions, continue active contact checking, early diagnosis, early isolation, and mild social distancing.
・What percentage of contact with a person is maintained in a reduced state for a long period of time compared to original living circumstances (Reduction of contact).
・If the percentage reaches 50％, this could have a big effect on society and the economy long-term.
・If it’s 10-20％, it might be possible.
If you want to reduce the amount of people infected by 20％, you need to diagnose people at a fairly early stage. However, the amount of beds available are limited. Preparation in the medical field affects everything.
By the way, this figure is an analysis prediction when 80% of people avoid contact.