Learning from the concept of “tolerance of failure” to keep searching for responses to hypothetical scenarios
Saying “I can’t talk about hypotheticals,” is a failure of leadership.
This is because the role of a leader is to come up with a lot of hypothetical scenarios and then develop a response for each one.
We should create a scientific standard (with temporary parameters for now) that shows how we can return the coronavirus situation to Stage 3. When we should tell people to stay at home, when these measures should be lifted, and when they should be strengthened. Rather than subjective ideas like a target stage or time limit, we should have a numerically measurable hypothesis, based on the action plans for each source of infection. If we do that, everyone will be able to share the same goal, and if we achieve it, we may be able to go back to normal relatively quickly.
Instead of a strict hierarchical system, where those on top give orders and those below simply follow them, we should treat our goal setting as a shared issue, which will lead to the problem being solved by the government and people working together, rather than making it purely a task for politicians.
Even if someone doesn’t know much about science, they know that when the temperature falls in winter, more people catch colds. Considering the cold snap happening this January, and how cold it gets in February, perhaps we might have to close not just restaurants, but schools as well.
The fact that the lockdown measures are lighter than they were last April, despite the number of cases being higher this time, indicates that the government may even be making decisions without even any hypotheticals to guide them.
If they are unable to provide possible scenarios that could happen, that essentially means that their risk management is insufficient.
I recently read an interesting book. (Title/author below)
The book makes the claim that life has a certain “tolerance of failure.” The reason biological diversity is so important is that living creatures fail the vast majority of the time. Even if one creature dies without being able to create descendants, another will manage to; this is how life has worked for all of history. And this is why diversity is so important.
If the role of government is to protect the people, politicians should be coming up with hypothetical scenarios left and right, and trying out a range of different measures. Even if these fail, they should do everything in their power to create even a glimmer of hope. If politicians are unable to discuss hypotheticals, then what is left?
What we need are leaders, not managers. So no matter how many times they fail, they should keep talking about hypothetical scenarios.
A biological approach to transform the way you see business and life (Author: Yoko Takahashi)