Summary” to avoid unnecessary panic about Mr. Cobbitt.
Once upon a time, an unknown monster suddenly arrived in a village, devouring and terrorizing the people. Someone named the monster “Lion,” and it became just a lion.
The fear of new viruses is the same as this, creating needless panic that comes from a lack of correct understanding. Therefore, I summarized the situation based on scientific articles about the new coronavirus (COVID-19 , officially named Covid).
*Cobit is the official name of the new coronavirus (named by WHO)
(1) Why are viruses born suddenly?
The sole purpose of viruses is to “procreate. For humans, who have risen to the most powerful position on earth, the only natural enemy is pathogenic microorganisms.
The history of mankind is 200,000 years, but that of microorganisms is 4 billion years. Even though people have fought infectious diseases through various countermeasures such as the development of water and sewage systems, the spread of medical facilities and systems, and improved nutrition, they are strong survivors that have stubbornly survived, lurking among bats and animals, attacking people through repeated mutations.
*Excerpt from an interview with Hiroyuki Ishi, author of “The Global History of Infectious Diseases
(2) What kind of virus is Cobit-kun?
Since it is a new type of cold virus, the official name of the causative virus is SARS-CoV-2. It is actually a type of SARS, a new type of a very common cold virus that has been around for a long time. That’s kind of reassuring, isn’t it?
The fatality rate is only a few percent, and it is less virulent than other infectious diseases that have caused pandemics. However, it is only low in virulence, but highly contagious. It is possible that a person may be infected but not develop the disease and spread it without being aware of it.
People who contract the virus become immune to the virus in their bodies, so the more people who are immune to the virus, the slower the speed of infection.
The influenza that is currently raging in the U.S. has killed many times more people (14,000) than Covid. Incidentally, the number of deaths from Cobit is 2,663 (as of February 24).
(3) Three patterns of fighting viruses
Humanity will win and eradicate (smallpox, polio, etc.)
Viruses coexist with humans (they are allowed to stay in the human body as indigenous bacteria. Some bacteria that were lethal in the past coexist peacefully afterwards. Herpes, for example)
Constant offensive and defensive fighting (flu, chickenpox, etc.)
Mr. Cobbitt, you are probably the third type. That means it will end up at one of the following points: either it will not end completely, and antibodies will make it go away, or a vaccine will be available, or the number of existing infected people who are cured will increase and the number of new infected people will decrease, and the media will get tired of reporting on it.
(4) Status of vaccine development
The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that there are more than 70 drugs or drug combinations that have not been approved in any country in the world at this time, but are worth a try. The following are representative development projects.
FUJIFILM TOYAMA CHEMICAL’s anti-influenza agent Avigan (favipiravir)
Gilead Sciences’ antiviral drug Lemdecivir.
*This is the company that developed the blockbuster hepatitis C drug.
Kaletra (generic name: lopinavir/ritonavir), an anti-HIV drug from AbbVie, Inc.
But vaccines usually take years to develop, so if we don’t wait for this to go out, it will be the end of humanity in a different way. In other words, things will be settled before a vaccine is available.
(5) Summary (How far and for how long should I be afraid?)
Convergence of more people who retain antibodies after healing than vaccine development
The WHO says it will take 15 months to develop a vaccine, and we are talking about spring 2021. This may sound panic-inducing, but rest assured, it is not. In the case of SARS, the situation was eventually resolved before a vaccine was developed. See the aforementioned fight. We will probably have a long relationship with Mr. Cobbitt.
Therefore, how well one keeps one’s own immune system strong determines whether or not one will develop the disease. Just as there are people who vaccinate themselves against influenza even though it is prevalent, there are people who do not vaccinate themselves against influenza. Even if a vaccine is developed in the future, some people may develop a fever and heal spontaneously without taking the vaccine.
…It becomes so widespread and commoditized that the media gets tired of reporting on it.
Even now, there are 83,000 infected people in the world, but those who have recovered within a few days are in town and at work just like people after the flu. Moreover, since antibodies (antibodies) have been formed, these people will not be infected for some time. In other words, although it is a threat in the sense that it is a new disease that kills people, it may become as common as the death of a person who contracted pneumonia from a cold.
This article is not meant to say, “Fear not, Mr. Cobbitt,” but rather to say that it is better not to cause unnecessary and excessive panic. Encourage people to gargle and wash their hands, but don’t go out on the town, or you’ll be sad if the economy goes down and more people commit suicide than die from infection, so use your best judgment calmly.