Long-term scenario for convergence of new viruses from modeling
I was given a great modeling analysis article.
It is important to look at the scientific analysis of this corona eradication process. Otherwise, it will only increase social unrest, wondering whether we must continue to have severe restrictions on leaving the house forever (until a vaccine is developed).
The initial goal may be to increase the number of beds while maintaining the number of beds that can cover the elderly and critically ill and, on balance, limit the stay-home rate to 80 at once for a short period of time %までもっていくか（いまは医療崩壊してしまう）長期的に20-30%, and increase the number of beds while keeping the economy moving.
I agree with the theory that many of them are infected from unrecognized symptoms and that their isolation is important.
Everyone, read carefully and stay calm.
Long-term COVID-19 strategy from modeling” by Mangoose cat
What should we do in the long term? Several scenarios are being considered.
Scenario 1: Repeat the outward restriction measures each time the infection flares up in accordance with the limited capacity of medical resources.
Scenario 2: Once the number of infected patients is reduced by strong curfew measures, aggressive contact tracing, early diagnosis, and early isolation, plus continued light social distancing
What percentage of time do you maintain a continuous reduction of contact with people compared to your original life (reduction of contact)?
When it comes to the -50%, the long-term impact on social and economic life is likely to be significant.
I think 10~20% might be possible.
If we want to prevent the spread of infection at 20%, we will have to diagnose many of them very early. But there are not enough beds available. Nowadays, everything depends on the preparation of the medical field.
Incidentally, this figure is the convergence forecast when 80% contact is avoided.